Ukraine Can’t Win the War

 

Ukraine finds itself in a challenging position as its long-awaited counteroffensive failed, resulting in the recapture of Avdiivka by Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged this new military reality, prompting the Biden Administration to focus on sustaining Ukrainian defense until after the U.S. presidential elections, hoping to exhaust Russian forces in a prolonged conflict.

While this strategy appears reasonable, it carries significant implications and potential flaws that demand serious consideration. One crucial implication is that Ukraine, by remaining on the defensive, implicitly accepts the loss of territories currently occupied by Russia. These lands are unlikely to be surrendered by Russia at the negotiating table, posing a complex dilemma for Ukraine and the West.

Although formal surrender of these territories is impossible for any Ukrainian government, the reality suggests that the territorial issue must be set aside for future discussions, akin to Zelensky's earlier proposal regarding Crimea and the eastern Donbas. Such negotiations, as evidenced by the case of Cyprus, can endure for decades without resolution or escalate into renewed conflict.

Many Ukrainians, recognizing the grim alternatives of prolonged warfare with uncertain outcomes, privately contemplate accepting the loss of some territories as the price for peace and stability. Achieving independence, preserving the freedom to develop as a Western democracy, and retaining the majority of its legal territory would have been considered a significant victory by past generations of Ukrainians, albeit incomplete.

However, some proponents of complete Ukrainian victory harbor overly optimistic or unrealistic hopes, such as the notion of defeating Russia through long-range missile bombardment—a proposition dismissed as folly given Russia's military capabilities and geographical vastness.

A more pragmatic approach suggests that by maintaining a defensive stance, Ukraine could inflict significant losses on Russian forces, potentially enabling a successful counterattack in the future, provided Ukraine receives substantial Western military support. Yet, this strategy hinges on Russia's willingness to engage in the conflict on terms favourable to Kyiv and Washington, which may not align with Russian objectives.

Russia's strategy involves protracted engagements for incremental territorial gains, leveraging its superior artillery, munitions, and drone capabilities. The shifting balance of manpower and firepower favours Russia, making the Ukrainian recovery of lost advantages increasingly challenging.

The Biden Administration rightly warns that without substantial U.S. military aid, Ukrainian resistance may falter. However, even with continued support, total Ukrainian victory appears unrealistic in the near term, given Russia's entrenched position and capacity for further defence reinforcement.

Exploring President Putin's sincerity in seeking peace talks becomes imperative for the Biden Administration. A successful peace process would necessitate difficult concessions from Ukraine and the West, yet the emotional toll of continued conflict and defeat far outweighs the practical challenges of a peace settlement.

Ultimately, the lost Ukrainian territories remain unrecoverable, and NATO membership offers little solace if the alliance hesitates to intervene militarily against Russian aggression. Pursuing a peace agreement, while undoubtedly painful, is preferable to the enduring agony of prolonged conflict and Ukrainian defeat.

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